Further processing options
Can economic transitions be planned?: China and the 13th Five-Year Plan
Saved in:
| Authors and Corporations: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | Melander, Annika Eriksgård [Author] • Weiss, Peter [Author] |
| Type of Resource: | E-Book |
| Language: | English |
| published: | |
| Series: |
European economy ; 017 (September 2016)
|
| Subjects: | |
| Source: | Verbunddaten SWB Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen |
| ISBN: | 9789279544873 |
| License: |
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged
|
| Summary: | "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail" Benjamin Franklin once said. The current Chinese leadership seems to be well aware of this risk and it is trying to stay ahead of the curve. Chinese policymakers are seeking to engineer a gradual slowdown of the economy and a transition to a more sustainable, inclusive and balanced growth model. In this engineering exercise, the five-year plan plays an important role by (1) spelling out the reforms necessary to carry out the transition and the modalities of their implementation and (2) setting the targets, many of them numerical, which should be achieved. There is however a fundamental question, whose relevance continues to increase as China moves from a command economy to a market-based one: can such a transition be planned? This Economic Brief discusses the issue by looking at how China's economic planning has evolved over time, at the strengths and weaknesses of the recently approved 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP), and the political economy behind it. Its main conclusion is that because of the growing complexity of China's economy and society, engineering such a transition is almost a "mission impossible". Still, economic transitions can be steered and de facto this is what the 13th FYP is trying to do. Whether the 13th FYP will succeed remains to be seen. Significant progress has been made in certain areas and there is no doubt that the economy is in the process of rebalancing, both as regards the demand and supply-side of the economy. While the current FYP heavily emphasises policies in support of innovation, the greening of the economy and social inclusion, it is less clear on how to pursue reforms to address the economy's current macroeconomic and financial imbalances. Another important conclusion we reach is that in the coming years, China's economic planning will have to reinvent itself. Even if it succeeds in steering a smooth transition to a more sustainable growth model, it will have to adapt to the conditions of an increasingly sophisticated, financially complex and service oriented middle-income economy which requires efficient markets as an information processing device. As a result, it will have to get rid of the remaining imperative elements that are still present as a legacy of a command-driven model of development. |
|---|---|
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten); Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9789279544873 |
| DOI: | 10.2765/056262 |
| Access: | Open Access |