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How people know their risk preference

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Bibliographic Details
Authors and Corporations: Arslan, Ruben C. (Author), Brümmer, Martin (Author), Dohmen, Thomas (Author), Drewelies, Johanna (Author), Hertwig, Ralph (Author), Wagner, Gert G. (Author)
Other Authors: Brümmer, Martin [Author] • Dohmen, Thomas 1972- [Author] • Drewelies, Johanna [Author] • Hertwig, Ralph 1963- [Author] • Wagner, Gert G. 1953- [Author]
Type of Resource: E-Book
Language: English
Berlin, Germany German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), DIW Berlin [2020]
Series: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: SOEP papers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 1104 (2020)
Source: Verbunddaten SWB
Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen
Summary: People differ in their willingness to take risks. Recent work found that revealed preference tasks (e.g., laboratory lotteries) - a dominant class of measures-are outperformed by survey-based stated preferences, which are more stable and predict real-world risk taking across different domains. How can stated preferences, often criticised as inconsequential "cheap talk," be more valid and predictive than controlled, incentivized lotteries? In our multimethod study, over 3,000 respondents from population samples answered a single widely used and predictive riskpreference question. Respondents then explained the reasoning behind their answer. They tended to recount diagnostic behaviours and experiences, focusing on voluntary, consequential acts and experiences from which they seemed to infer their risk preference. We found that thirdparty readers of respondents' brief memories and explanations reached similar inferences about respondents' preferences, indicating the intersubjective validity of this information. Our results help unpack the self perception behind stated risk preferences that permits people to draw upon their own understanding of what constitutes diagnostic behaviours and experiences, as revealed in high-stakes situations in the real world.
Physical Description: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 102 Seiten); Illustrationen