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How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic
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| Authors and Corporations: | , , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | Koşar, Gizem [Author] • Pomerantz, Rachel [Author] • Skandalis, Daphné [Author] • Smith, Kyle [Author] • Topa, Giorgio [Author] • Klaauw, Wilbert van der 1963- [Author] |
| Type of Resource: | E-Book |
| Language: | English |
| published: |
New York, NY
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
[2020]
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| Series: |
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Staff reports ; no. 949 (November 2020)
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| Source: | Verbunddaten SWB Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen |
| Summary: | This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. We find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we show differences across demographic groups. Finally, we document a strong link, consistent with precautionary saving, between inflation uncertainty and how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act. |
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| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten); Illustrationen |