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Long COVID: a tentative assessment of its impact on labour market participation & potential economic effects in the EU

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Bibliographic Details
Authors and Corporations: Calvo Ramos, Santiago (Author), Maldonado, Joana Elisa (Author), Vandeplas, Anneleen (Author), Ványolós, István (Author)
Other Authors: Maldonado, Joana Elisa [Author] • Vandeplas, Anneleen [Author] • Ványolós, István [Author]
Type of Resource: E-Book
Language: English
published:
Series: European economy ; 077 (January 2024)
Subjects:
long COVID
economic impact
labour supply
EU output loss
labour market
unemployment
coronavirus disease
EU employment policy
economic consequence
employment statistics
EU Member State
Graue Literatur
Source: Verbunddaten SWB
Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen
ISBN: 9789276296324
License:
Non-commercial reproduction authorised, subject to acknowledgement of the source. For any use or reproduction of photos which are not under European Union copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder(s)
Description
Summary: This paper provides a review of estimates of the prevalence of long COVID in the EU, and a tentative assessment of its economic impact, in particular on labour supply. This tentative approach yields an estimated prevalence of long COVID cases of around 1.7% of the EU population in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, resulting in a negative impact on labour supply of 0.2-0.3% in 2021 and 0.3-0.5% in 2022. In person-equivalents, this means long COVID would have reduced labour supply by 364,000-663,000 in 2021 and by 621,000-1,112,000 in 2022, combining the effect of lower productivity, higher sick leaves, lower hours, and increased unemployment or inactivity. The lower bound of this range is close to a recent estimate put forward for the US (Abraham & Rendell, 2023). These figures imply that long COVID could have caused an output loss of 0.1-0.2% in 2021 and 0.2-0.3% in 2022. Available labour market data suggest a mixed picture when it comes to the impact of long COVID. Overall, the possible role of long COVID in the rising trend in sick leave, disability and activity-limiting health factors, warrants careful monitoring going forward, due to its potential impact on labour supply and labour productivity, and on public finances through increased social benefits, pensions, health care and long-term care expenditure.
Physical Description: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
ISBN: 9789276296324
DOI: 10.2765/245526
Access: Open Access